A key measure of private-sector employment in the United States contracted unexpectedly last month, signaling potential softness in the labor market. According to the latest ADP National Employment Report, private payrolls fell by 32,000 positions in November. This decline follows a revised gain of 47,000 jobs in October and stands in sharp contrast to economist expectations of a 10,000-job increase.
The report, developed alongside the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, often shows variances compared to the official government employment data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS is scheduled to release its comprehensive November jobs report on December 16, a delay caused by the recent federal government shutdown. That upcoming report will also include finalized data for October. Notably, the official unemployment rate for October will remain a statistical gap, as the shutdown prevented the collection of the necessary household survey data.
The November ADP data points to a potential cooling in hiring. Analysts note that broader economic uncertainty, often linked to trade policy, has contributed to a cautious stance among employers, creating a climate where many are hesitant to either expand or reduce their workforce significantly. This “no hire, no fire” environment is reflected in other data, such as stable levels of initial claims for unemployment benefits, even as hiring momentum appears to stall.
The most recent complete government data, for September, showed the economy added 119,000 jobs that month, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4%, its highest level in four years. The forthcoming reports will be scrutinized to determine if November’s private-sector dip is an anomaly or the start of a broader trend.