A deepening strategic rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the political future of Yemen has escalated to a critical point, with Riyadh issuing a stark warning that it views Emirati actions as a direct threat to its national security. The core of the dispute centers on the UAE’s support for southern Yemeni separatists, whose recent territorial gains have brought the region to the brink of a new civil war and risk destabilizing the broader Horn of Africa.
For years, the two Gulf powers have pursued divergent strategies in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, viewing its southern neighbor as within its sphere of influence, has focused on a diplomatic approach aimed at reconciling warring factions within a unified state. The UAE, however, has cultivated a partnership with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a secessionist movement that taps into historical grievances in the south. This long-simmering competition has now erupted into open confrontation.
The flashpoint came as STC forces, with apparent Emirati backing, rapidly expanded their control across southern Yemen, seizing key territories including the resource-rich Hadramaut governorate. This move effectively gave the separatists command over most of the land that once constituted an independent South Yemen. In a significant response, Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes targeting vehicles it said were destined for the STC and originated from Emirati ports, marking a dramatic public rupture between the former coalition partners.
Analysts warn the confrontation extends far beyond Yemen’s borders. Both nations are engaged in proxy competitions in conflicts from Sudan to the Horn of Africa, and a direct clash between them could spill over into these arenas. Furthermore, the schism is seen as a major strategic boon for the Houthi movement in northern Yemen, which now watches as its principal adversaries turn on each other.
Despite intense Saudi diplomatic pressure demanding a rollback of STC gains, the UAE has shown no sign of retreat. Emirati commentators frame their nation’s stance as a matter of principled loyalty to allies, while Saudi officials emphasize that threats to their border security are an unequivocal “red line.”
The international community, particularly Western powers, faces a complex dilemma. While there is a stated preference for Yemen’s unity, the escalating tension between two key regional partners complicates any coherent external response. The situation creates a dangerous vacuum, with the potential to fragment Yemen further and ignite a regional power struggle with unpredictable consequences.