In a notable shift, a senior Emirati diplomat has publicly acknowledged a critical error in his nation’s approach to Sudan, marking a potential turning point after years of support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This paramilitary group stands accused of carrying out mass killings following its capture of the strategic city of El Fasher.
Speaking at a regional forum, the diplomat stated that a collective failure to condemn and sanction the architects of the 2021 military coup—a joint action by the Sudanese army and the RSF that dismantled the civilian-led transitional government—was a mistake. This admission represents a stark departure from the UAE’s previous posture, which had actively worked to bolster the military’s role in Sudan’s governance following the 2019 uprising.
Analysts note that Gulf financial support, initially pledged to a transitional military council and later withheld from the civilian administration, critically weakened the fledgling democratic government. This financial pressure is seen as a direct contributor to the eventual coup and the devastating civil war that erupted between the army and the RSF in 2023.
For years, evidence from United Nations panels, independent investigators, and media reports has pointed to the UAE as a covert source of weapons and funding for the RSF, allegations the Gulf state consistently denies. The group’s leader has been sanctioned by the United States, with several UAE-based companies also targeted for their role in financing his operations.
The recent atrocities in El Fasher, which civilian groups had warned about for months, have intensified international scrutiny. Critics argue that as the power with the greatest leverage over the RSF leadership, the UAE bore a unique responsibility to prevent the violence. While condemning the killings, Emirati officials have also faulted the Sudanese army for a lack of compromise.
The UAE now portrays itself as a neutral mediator, advocating for a return to the civilian-led rule that was interrupted by the 2021 coup. It insists it is the target of a disinformation campaign. However, human rights organizations state that tangible proof of a changed policy would require the UAE’s proactive cooperation with international bodies enforcing an arms embargo on Sudan.
Observers suggest the UAE’s next steps will hinge on a strategic calculation: whether the RSF, despite its brutal tactics, remains essential to securing two long-standing Emirati objectives in Sudan. The first is access to the country’s vast natural resources, particularly gold. A significant portion of Sudan’s gold exports, both legal and illicit, is believed to flow to the UAE, providing a major revenue stream for the warring factions.
The second is containing the influence of political Islamism, which the UAE views as a fundamental threat to regional stability. This drove its initial alignment with the RSF as a counterweight to factions within the Sudanese army.
The path forward remains uncertain. Diplomatic efforts, led by a group of nations including the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, have outlined a framework for a humanitarian truce leading to a permanent ceasefire and a future civilian government. A key tenet of the proposal asserts that Sudan’s governance must be decided by its people, not by the warring parties, while also explicitly rejecting influence from extremist groups.
Whether the UAE is prepared to fully leverage its influence to halt the conflict and end its association with the RSF is now the pressing question, as the Sudanese people endure the catastrophic consequences of a war with powerful external backers.