A significant imbalance is emerging in global oil markets, with production set to exceed consumption by millions of barrels per day next year, according to a new assessment from a leading international energy monitor.
The latest analysis indicates that by 2026, the world could face a daily surplus of over 4 million barrels of oil. This projected glut is larger than previous estimates and comes despite moves by major producing nations to hold back planned increases in their exports.
The widening gap is attributed to a combination of robust supply growth and a slowdown in the expansion of global oil demand, which is rising at a more modest pace than has been typical in past decades. The monitor’s report states that supply is “forging ahead” while demand growth remains subdued.
The warning coincides with the publication of the agency’s broader long-term energy outlook. This year’s report reintroduced a contentious projection—absent since 2020—that models global oil demand continuing to grow until the middle of the century. This scenario assumes limited progress on international climate goals. The agency has stated the inclusion was not made due to external pressure, though it follows calls from some quarters for a more optimistic view of fossil fuel’s future.
Critics argue this particular model may not fully account for accelerating trends, such as the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in key Asian markets, which are already beginning to curb oil use.
The outlook also presents alternative, and more central, scenarios where global oil consumption peaks before 2030, driven by the powerful dual forces of electrified transport and the relentless rise of renewable power. Across all its forecasts, the agency anticipates renewable energy capacity will at least double within the next five years, a build-out that would surpass the total added over the last four decades.
Industry observers note the data confirms an “irreversible momentum” toward electrification, with renewables growing faster than any other major energy source in every long-term assessment. They caution that political narratives should not distract from this fundamental, data-driven shift in the global energy system.
The immediate market data underscores the trend. The latest monthly figures show global oil supply is expected to grow by over 3 million barrels per day next year. With demand growth lagging, the surplus projected for 2026 has been revised upward, pointing to a market increasingly awash with crude.